Thanksgiving: What Did We Know?
Ever the content motivator, (American) Thanksgiving serves as a popular timestamp for each NHL season. Who among us doesn’t enjoy the annual tradition of the green leaves turning to golden foliage as the qualified “…but it’s still early” takes turn to the more dramatic “statistically…75% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving ultimately make the playoffs”?
Though we all enjoy this and I am still digesting all of last week’s recent check-ins on the league and the Kings, let us take a different approach. Do we know all that much?
Here we’ll take a deeper dive into previous years for the Kings and answer whether pre-Thanksgiving games would have been a good guide to what followed. While a complex subject and one we could say much, the punchline will be that we don’t know much and there is a lot of season left to go..
Thanksgiving: Some Background
In 1620, fleeing religious persecution, a group of English families known as the Pilgrims…
Back to that initial oft-repeated statistic: 75% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving ultimately make the playoffs. Sounds impressive…what do we make of it?
It’s less impressive than what you might think. 50% of the teams make the playoffs. This means if someone selected 16 teams at random, I should expect 8 of them to be playoff teams. The 75% statistic says that if you know the standings on Thanksgiving, you should be able to bump that number to 12, on average. Not bad, but then you consider the spectrum of teams you probably already were really confident would and would not make the playoffs and you start to realize the predictive power is more limited.
Still, it does have some predictive power; let’s look at why. There are two parts to it: the standings as of Thanksgiving and the quality of the teams that make the standings.
The standings part matters. Think of the point differentials between teams as akin to handicaps that bookies set. “Sure, I’m not sure if Utah is better than Winnipeg, but are they three points worse?” These point differentials are money in the bank and mathematically influence outcomes at the end of the year.
What about the quality of teams? If you are good at the start of the year, are you likely to be good the rest of the year?
The following data represents the R2 between a given variable across the league as measured up to Thanksgiving and the standing points performance for teams after Thanksgiving. R2 is a measure of statistical fit defined as the percentage of variation in some variable explained by the line of best fit related to another variable. For example, the table indicates that 33% of the league-wide variation in post-Thanksgiving 82-game point pace was explained by the pre-Thanksgiving variation in 82-game point pace.
Remember, the numbers indicate how well each variable predicts just the record after Thanksgiving, so there is no issue of circularity. What do we see? A few observations:
- Each variable has limited explanatory power by themselves, with no variable being associated with more than 57% of the final outcome. This doesn’t preclude these variables having a lot of power in combination; I am sure teams that win a lot of games by a lot of goals with strong “underlying” numbers before Thanksgiving tend to do well over the rest of the season.
- Results vary widely from season-to-season. Some years, like in 2023, the whole season is a continuation of the start of the season. Other years, like 2016, there was virtually no relationship, as the year included both massive collapses and impressive turnarounds.
- Expected goals (according to Natural Stat Trick) is a volatile indicator. From 2022-2024, it showed the strongest predictive power of any variable for any season, but there were many years where it was significantly worse than points pace. Don’t rely on it too much to predict “overperformers”
- What about the Kings? Same story as the rest of the league. Since 2008, strong starts are almost never associated with bad teams and bad starts are almost never associated with good teams, but there is always a lot of hockey left.
What happened in some of those Kings seasons? Let’s dig in on the last four to understand what we did know, should have known, and could not have known as of that season’s Thanksgiving.
2021-2022
Stories of the Season:
- Wait, are the Kings…good?!
- Kempe arrives
- The Nice Line
- Injuries, injuries, injuries
- Streaks!
- Rookies everywhere!
How Did It Look on Thanksgiving?
By Thanksgiving, the 2021-22 Kings had a record of 8-8-3 (19 points in 19 games; 24th out of 32 teams by point percentage). Feelings were mixed as the season-to-date was characterized by a series of streaks: they won the opener, then lost seven in a row (1 in OT), then won seven in a row (4 in OT/SO), and then lost five in a row (two in OT). To further darken the outlook, Drew Doughty went down with a scary knee injury (week-to-week) in the fourth game of the season and Sean Walker tore his ACL in game 6.
Injuries, along with the disruptive Covid protocols and underperformance by some, have led to significant roster turmoil. 26 skaters have made appearances to this point. Some, like Gabriel Vilardi and Vladimir Tkachev, have been sent to Ontario for underperformance (with the future bleak for the former as the organization now attempts to convert him to wing), while others have risen the depth chart. Former black sheep Olli Maata started the year as a scratch and is now getting regular minutes, while Sean Durzi started strong in the AHL and has now played the last two games. All the while we wait for 19-year-old Quinton Byfield to make his season debut.
How did scoring look at this point? Unsurprisingly, Kopitar led the way, starting strong with a hat trick in the opener against Vegas and then proceeding at his usual pace. Iaffalo and Kempe are also off to nice starts, though it’s too early to get excited as Kempe has never before shown season-long productivity, only flashes. Newcomers, Arvidsson and Danault are off to mild starts despite being visually active.
As far as goaltending goes, Cal Petersen was supposed to take the reigns as the definitive #1 this season. It hasn’t happened yet. Quick has decisively outplayed Petersen, who have virtual mirror images of each other on their goals-saved-above-expected numbers
What Happened Later?
The up-and-down seesaw continued for a while. Doughty returned on November 30th, which brought some needed stability and production on the back end. Still, by December 28th, the team was 14-12-5 (33 points in 31 games) and out of a playoff spot. On December 30th Trever Moore (totally unnoteworthy at this point), Phillip Danault, and Viktor Arvidsson were put on a line together.
From this point until early March, the Kings had one of the best records in the NHL, with the team only slowing down following a devastating series of injuries to virtually every key defenseman. Taken in total, the team’s record was 36-16-8 after Thanksgiving, a 109 point pace.
Who led the team in scoring the rest of the way? It turns out Kempe could sustain high goal scoring for a full season. However, nothing compares to the shock of Trevor Moore’s outburst in the second half of the season. Trevor Moore, who had one point before Thanksgiving, was now the team’s second-leading point producer for the rest of the season.
As for the goalies, Quick has firmly taken a hold of the starting job, though both goalies are posting fairly average statistics.
What We Might Have Known:
- Kempe might take off
- Petersen isn’t taking over
- There are going to be a lot of injuries
What We Could Not Have Known:
- Trevor Moore was set to explode
- Phillip Danault could become a dangerous goal scorer
- Rookies Sean Durzi, Jordan Spence, and Jacob Moverare would step in to get the team to the finish line
2022-2023
Stories of the Season:
- Goaltending tumult
- The Vilardi rebirth
- Byfield returns…on wing
- Durzi on left
- A controversial trade, then dominance, then injuries…
How Did It Look on Thanksgiving?
By Thanksgiving, the 2022-23 Kings had a record of 11-9-2 (24 points in 22 games, an 89 point pace; 17th out of 32 teams by point pace). While the 2021-22 Kings surprised many with a relatively comfortable playoff appearance, the 2022-23 came into the season with expectations related to newly acquired forward Kevin Fiala (coming off an 85 point season in Minnesota) and optimism for a full season from former second-overall pick, Quinton Byfield. While the prior year’s team had good structure and was an effective possession team, now they were adding explosive offensive talent to take the team to the next level.
Indeed, the offense came out the gate relatively well and Fiala was the biggest part of that, scoring 21 points in 22 games, but Byfield was not. Though part of an effective early line with Alex Iaffalo for a few games, Byfield contracted an illness and was sent to the AHL for a rehab assignment, where we have not seen him since. No crisis though, as a different former highly regarded prospect has stolen the show: Gabriel Vilardi, who scored 11 goals in 21 games.
So why the mediocre record? Well, what has happened to that defense?! The inability to keep the puck out of the net has been the talk of the season, with the Kings having the 23rd ranked defense in the NHL. This was supposed to be the team’s calling card! What happened? Many pieces are written and Coach Todd Mcclellan gives many scowls. Popular theories fall into versions of the following:
- The defensemen are different: Doughty and Walker are back from injury, with the latter facing criticism for the quality of play in his first year on the reconstructed knee. Maata is gone and Bjornfot is down in the AHL for lack of space. Meanwhile, owing to the team’s glut of right-handers, Durzi is now playing the left side with Roy on right, where Durzi has fallen prey to a number of visible blunders.
- The team lost its “identity”: Jim Fox and Todd McClellan stress this a lot. Has the team lost its soul in the pursuit of offensive firepower? What happened to structure? A lot of the goals have taken place after defensive lapses leading to Grade A scoring chances
- The goalies are letting-down the team: the goaltending numbers are abysmal, with both Quick and Petersen having save percentages well under .900. Sure, there have been some grade-A chances, but a goalie has to stop some of them. According to NST, the Kings are still a top-10 xGA team in the league.
What is happening scoring-wise? Apart from the aforementioned strong starts for Fiala and Vilardi, Kempe is of to a decent start, with 7 goals, somewhat validating the new $5.5M contract the Kings gave him in the offseason. Also with a decent start is Arthur Kaliyev, with six goals, still showing promise despite being surpassed by Vilardi. Trevor Moore has continued his hot play from the prior season, playing at a 60 point pace.
What Happened Later?
Three major changes altered the fortunes of the 2022-23 Kings:
- Following a disastrous relief appearance in a November 29th 9-8 loss to the Seattle Kraken, Cal Petersen was waived and sent down to Ontario. Replacing him on a call-up was 31-year-old Pheonix Copley, who only had irregular NHL experience to that point. Stunningly, this seemed to solve a good chunk of the team’s defensive problems. It turns out it’s hard to keep the puck out of the net with league-worst goaltending. By the end of December, the team is a healthy 21-13-6 (47 points in 40 games, a 96 point pace).
- Byfield, after getting called back up in late December, is moved to wing on the top line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. This line ends up being one of the most dominant in the league for the remainder of the year, outscoring the opposition 31-11 at 5on5, the highest GF% in the league for any line with at least 400 minutes. By the end of February the team is 34-20-8 (76 points in 62 games, a 100-point pace
- On February 28th, GM Rob Blake trades team legend Quick, a first, and a third-round pick for defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov and goalie Jonas Korpisalo. With Korpisalo and Copley, the Kings now have two reliable starters to alternate in net. With Gavrikov joining Roy on the second pair, the Kings are cemented as one of the top defensive teams in the league, allowing the second fewest GA/game for the remainder of the season. Following the trade, the Kings go 9-0-2 over the next 11 games before a series of injuries to Vilardi, Fiala, and Anderson send the team stumbling into the playoffs with losses in five of the last nine games. Still, the team finishes with a record 47-25-10 and 104 points.
Who produced? Fiala stepped up his pace even higher before injury and scored at an 89 point pace after Thanksgiving. However, the bigger explosion was from Kopitar and Kempe. Kempe fully solidified himself as one of the leagues noteworthy goal scorers with 34 additional goals, summing to a season total of 41. In the background of all this, was the stunning turnaround of the Kings power-play, which went from one of the league’s worst in 2021-22, to second in the league in 2022-23.
What We Might Have Known:
- Vilardi is real
- Petersen is a disaster and Quick isn’t doing well either
- The fundamentals of the team are strong
What We Could Not Have Known:
- Byfield would become an effective top line winger
- The team can find two competent goaltenders
- Adding a player like Gavrikov would make the defense so formidable
2023-2024
Stories of the Season:
- Trevor Moore…an unused Edgar Allen Poe rhyme…and a great goal scorer!
- Dubois
- The vibes roller coaster
- Locker room dances and cookie nights
How Did It Look on Thanksgiving?
How does it look?! Oh boy…Jesse Cohen is discussing with Jim Fox and Nick Nickson whether this is the greatest Kings team ever, and that’s them holding back their full effusiveness! The Kings are absolutely dominant. They are 11-3-3 (25 points in 17 games, projecting to 121 points over 82 games). But it’s not only the record; they are killing teams. 8 of the 11 wins are by 3 or more goals and most of those 8 were against playoff teams from last year. Here are the all-strengths (per game via NST) Kings ranks:
- GF: 2nd
- GA: 4th
- GF%: 3rd
- xGF: 5th
- xGA: 5th
- xGF%: 3rd
Goaltending is awesome. Shooting is awesome. Analytics are awesome. The only thing that is not awesome is itself awesome because it leaves room for improvement. What is that not-awesome thing? Well…offseason addition Pierre-Luc Dubois is off to a slow start, but he is an established scorer in this league so that means there is only more upside potential!
Who’s been leading this surge? That’s what is so great about this start, it hasn’t been driven by one or two anomalous starts; about a half dozen players are having good starts, but not so good that it seems unsustainable. Moore, Grundstrom, and Lizotte are all contributing in addition to the usual suspects of Kempe, Kopitar, and Fiala. Of note, Byfield seems to have taken a leap in productivity in (hopefully) his first full NHL season, playing at a 72 point pace.
On goaltending, affordable newcomer Cam Talbot is posting some of the best numbers in the league. If he keeps this up he will be in Vezina contention.
What Happened Later?
Things continued into early December in the same way. By December 8th, the Kings were playing at a 125 point pace and were at or near the top of the NHL in every metric:
- Point pace: 2nd
- GF/60: 1st
- GA/60: 1st
- xGF/60: 2nd
- xGA/60: 1st
Then on December 9th, the Kings blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to the Islanders following an injury to defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov. This marked the first sign of troubles, as the team lost three of the next seven games. Things would then spiral out of control as a series of lengthy losing streaks stretched all the way across January, culminating in the firing of Todd McClellan during the early February All-Star Break. All told, the Kings went 3-8-6 from December 28th through the end of January. When Gavrikov first sustained his injury, the Kings were eyeing a President’s Trophy; by the All-Star break, they were just hoping for playoffs.
The Kings recovered as Hiller assumed the head coaching position, but never fully reached the early-season highs. They ended the season with one of the league’s top defenses, but offensively underpowered, and had a number of disappointing losses to playoff teams on the way to the postseason.
What happened to the scoring? Lot’s of players cooled off, but it’s more about what didn’t happen than what did: Dubois never took off.
What We Might Have Known at Thanksgiving:
- The Dubois trade isn’t going to work
- Trever Moore can really score
- The team defense is good
What We Could Not Have Known at Thanksgiving:
- January would be cursed
- Talbot wouldn’t be a Vezina contender
- The team would forget how to score
2024-2025
Stories of the Season:
- “Uncomfortable”…be it defensive pressure or risqué locker room photos
- Doughty out; Gavrikov in
- Kuemper dominant
- Post-Kuzmenko offensive explosion
How Did It Look on Thanksgiving?
When Drew Doughty suffered a severe ankle injury in the preseason opener, the gloomy outlook coming off a disappointing season and uninspiring offseason turned downright dark. “Just stay alive until Doughty returns,” the optimists thought, while the pessimists remoistened the usual salivation for a tear-down rebuild. Surprisingly, after a middling start as the lines were sorted, the Kings were looking decent. By Thanksgiving, the team is 12-8-3 (27 points in 23 games, a 96 point pace), which puts them in 12th place in the NHL. Not bad.
How did they survive the Doughty injury? It was trial and error to find top pair RD. First Spence, then Burroughs, and then, much to everyone’s surprise, Gavrikov moved up on his off-side and paired with Mikey Anderson. It hasn’t just worked…it’s been extremely effective! Despite getting top pair matchup minutes, the Kings have outscored the opposition 10-6 with the pair on the ice with a 64% expected goal share. This pair’s succes becomes the part of bigger picture of the early-season Kings: total defensive dominance. At 2.32 xGA/60 minutes (per NST), the Kings are the most defensively dominant team in the league and its not close. While goaltending has been mediocre so far, the team has found its strength.
On the offensive side, the old standards of Kempe and Kopitar are holding up the production, with a surprising contribution from second year winger, Alex Laferriere, who is second on the team in goals. On the negative side, Kevin Fiala and Quinton Byfield are having disappointing starts to the year.
Goaltending performance has been middling. Following an injury to newcomer Darcy Kuemper, David Rittich has started 14 games and Kuemper has started 10. Traditional stats like save percentage and goals against average have been strong for both, but expected goal numbers have been more middling. Furthermore, apart from ice-tilted opener against Buffalo, neither goaltender has demonstrated much ability to “steal” games when the team makes mistakes.
What Happened Later?
After Thanksgiving was good. The Kings went 36-17-6, 78 points in 60 games. Unlike the prior three seasons that were described earlier, this team was less episodic and more consistent. There were some ups and downs: December was very strong and the team continued steady and strong play into January when they would face their first sustained slump of the year before Drew Doughty returned and the league took a break for the four nations faceoff. The strengths of the early games lasted most of the way through the season and the weaknesses (e.g. the power play) remained weaknesses.
Over the final two months of the season, the team would morph into its formidable final form, as just about all of the previously cold players got hot at once. Fiala, Byfield, Moore, Danault…everyone got in sync as playoffs approached. When the team added Andrei Kuzmenko at the deadline, the power play finally gained some potency and solidified. From March onwards, the Kings scored at the fifth highest scoring rate in the league.
As far as goaltending goes, while Rittich’s struggles worsened, Kuemper’s performance improved. While at the beginning of the year, Kuemper might have been viewed as a serviceable stand-in, by the end of the year, he would be third in Vezina voting.
What We Might Have Known at Thanksgiving:
- Good team defense
- Kempe/Kopitar…still good
- Doughty’s injury will be survivable
What We Could Not Have Known at Thanksgiving:
- Kuemper would be one of the league’s best goaltenders
- The slumping players will eventually turn it around
- Kuzmenko
Summay
Why do this exercise? Why go through all this detail?
People get caught in the moment. Looking at how things looked in the past adds perspective. I could have written 10x more about each of these seasons to really elaborate on all of the details. And yet, for all that could be said, here is what these seasons looked like from a cumulative points perspective:
Each wiggle…that’s a twitter argument. In three of these years, there was panic setting in at the early stages; in the other, parades were being planned. Remember those topics and then move your eyes to game fifty on the x-axis; every one of these teams had the same record. This is not to say “it will all be ok”. Just because the last four seasons ultimately had a similar amount of standings points, doesn’t mean the next one will. It just means there is a lot of season left to go.
